NFL Betting - Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals Preview

NFL - Steelers v Arizona Cardinals

Firstly the MVP. Never a market to go crazy on but maybe this years is worth a bet. Heres my thoughts as to why:

Brief team analysis.

The Steelers have a core of players who won the Superbowl a few years ago in 2005 still playing. Offensively they are predominantly a running team which opens up the aerial game for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger whose accurate passing enables the team to be effective. The main reason for this years superbowl appearance has been their defense which led the NFL in several key defensive categories (including both pass yards and recieving yards which is quite a rare feat). Worth bearing in mind that the Steelers were given the toughest schedule in NFL in 2008 and still managed a 12-4 record when few gave them much chance.

The Cardinals great strength in total contrast is an explosive offense. Their aerial attack is one of the best in the league and they have a lot of talent at wide receiver. Their rushing attack was the worst in the NFL, the Steelers have a history of shutting down the run anyway so it will be down to quarterback Kurt Warner and WR's Boldin and Fitzgerald to help the Cards to the win. Defensively they are no more than an average unit, certainly not a patch on the Steelers defense. Their 9-7 record is perhaps a bit misleading as they were in a crappy division which they won early and had little to play for. Certainly looked a better unit in the playoffs.

So we are looking at a classic good offense vs a good defense confrontation. The old adage defense wins championships will most likely hold sway and i expect the Steelers to win comfortably. I am a bit biased as a lifelong Steelers fan but they are also the bookies favourites.

So i find my attention turned to the games MVP (most valuable player, like man of the match to those of you not familiar to the NFL).

Traditionally the winning quarterback is odds on favourite to win and its not hard to see why when you look at the position played by the previous 42 superbowl mvp's:

Quarterback 22

Running back 7

Wide receiver 5

Defensive end 2

Linebacker 2

Safety 2

Cornerback 1

Defensive tackle 1

Kick returner/punt returner 1

34/42 players on offense. However there are reasons to believe if the Steelers win it may go to a defensive player. My reasoning is:

The Steelers offense is unlikely to post a huge points total, they will look to dominate time of possession meaning Ben Roethlisberger will have low stats. They showed they are capable of fantastic ball control allowing the Ravens just 1 offensive play in 15 minutes of football in the championship game, an unheard of performance.

If the Steelers run a lot, Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore could end up sharing runs and keeping their numbers low.

Willie Parker has not had a great statistical year and was held to low numbers the last time these 2 met.

If the Cards cannot run the ball (highly likely) it'll mean lots of Steelers in the secondary denying the Cards WR's and giving them a lot of chances to make some interceptions.

The Cardinals will be forced throw the ball A LOT, one or two key turnovers could decide the game.

The Steelers defense is the best i have seen it in the last 10 years.

A quick look at why i am dismissive of various players (top prices in brackets):

Cardinals

Kurt Warner (5/1) Can only win if the Cards do. I dont believe they will. Worth a saver tho, he will have a massive game if they do. The key is he will have to throw the ball quickly because the Steelers pass rush will be all over him if he doesnt.

Larry Fitzgerald (9/1) #1 WR. Having a great year and at times unplayable. Its hard for WR's to win this tho as if they have big numbers the quarterback does too. Needs 2 TDs and over 100 yards to be considered coupled with a Cards win. Likely to be matched against Deshea Townsend who certainly has the speed. That doesnt make a 9/1 shot for me.

Anquan Boldin (25/1) #2 WR. With Fitzgerald demanding all the attention he could have a big game as he is a more than capable WR. Has done well to recover from what could have been a season ending hit tho but has the same trouble as Boldin regarding a WR and their stats. I reckon Ike Taylor will be covering him which ought to keep him subdued.

Edgerrin James (25/1) Rarely does a starting RB begin at 25/1 but he wont be able to run against the Steelers. Bookies are offering odds on his total yards over/under set at 49.5. Says it all.

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger (15/8) Statistically did nothing in the 2005 Superbowl (the one TD the Steelers managed that day was thrown by a WR on a trick play). Will be keen to improve on that but the gameplan may not involve the passing game too much unless the Steelers fall heavily behind early and even then they will not be keen to let him loose. I am a massive fan and believe he is well on his way to being a hall of fame QB already. Bit of a worry that #1 WR Hines Ward is carrying an injury as the rest of his receivers dont inspire much confidence.

Hines ward (18/1) Exactly the same odds as the last time the Steelers were here when he won the MVP award. Sat out a chunk of the championship game with a sprained knee and Steelers fans must be worried about a re-occurance.

Willie Parker (7/1) Had a stronger finish to the regular season than start and a great performance in the 1st playoff game against San Diego. Could well be fresher than most having missed a chunk of the regular season and the Steelers may rely on the running game heavily to keep the ball out of Warners hands. Certainly worth a bet and the most likely winner imo.

However there are some massive odds on a few key members of the Steelers defense and these have to be backed. It would be daft to ignore the #1 defense in the NFL containing the games MVP.

James Harrison (40/1) League defensive player of the year. Rather uniquely also plays on special teams. Nicknamed "Mr Monday Night" for putting in enormous performances on the televised Monday night games. Sacks quarterbacks for fun, if just one of those forces a fumble he could be well on his way to MVP honours to round off a fantastic 2008 which saw him break the Steelers regular season sacks record (16).

Troy Polamalu (20/1) The Steelers star safety. Returned an interception for the game sealing TD in the Championship game. Records a lot of interceptions because his position allows him to do so and he has an uncany knack of reading the quarterback and picking off passes. Gets a few sacks when he blitzes too. Short odds for a defensive player but in this case probably justifiably so. For those who like a bit of fate he wears #43 and this is Superbowl 43.

Lamarr Woodley (100/1) Just ridiculous odds for the other half of the Steelers sack machine duo having recorded 11.5 sacks. Won defensive player of the week on his debut so more than capable of a massive game. Flies under the radar a bit because of his two higher profile teammates.

Conclusions

If you think the Cards will pull off the upset you are surely better off backing them to win outright than guessing at which of their players will win MVP. For me Willie Parker is a decent bet at 7/1, his performance will be pivotal in the game, he comes into it fresher than most and is likely to see a LOT of the ball.

Outsiders worthy of support have to be Polamalu at 20/1, Harrison at 40/1 and Woodley at 100/1.

You could just back the Steelers to lose the coin toss at evs, (they have a history of this). Sadly bodog saw fit to remove their line on which set of cheerleaders would be televised the most (the Steelers dont have any!).

Perhaps the best bet i have found tho is bodogs:

Super Bowl XLIII - Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the Game thank first?

Wager is on Interview done with the Super Bowl MVP on field during the Trophy Presentation only.

God is EVS, Warner is a born again christian while Ben Roethlisberger thanked god first after the Steelers won the championship game. If its either of those 2 it may as well be 1/10.

Lastly the odds on certainty over at Skybet:

Willie Parker (4/9) to have more rushing yards than Edgerrin James. Only an injury can prevent Willie Parker winning this.



Pick : Parker to have more rushing yards than James
Odds : 1.44
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Skybet
Match Result : 53-33
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor:

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