Skiing - Sandrine Aubert v Nika Fleiss

29 December 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

Alpine Skiing Women - Slalom: Semmering

Bit of a lottery at the best of times womens slalom but i have some time on my hands so here are my thoughts. Those who excel at slalom skiing tend to be the ones who have the confidence to attack the gates. Success breeds success and those who have won races tend to go into races with greater confidence and more relaxed than the big names who havent hit the summit yet, try too hard and lose time as a result. In the past i have looked to exploit this in head 2 head bets featuring the hot skiers or the cold ones.

Lindsey Vonn has been a revelation this season. She has recorded a 1st, 4th and 2nd in the 3 world cup slalom races so far having spent her slalom career as little more than an also ran. Her consistency alone makes her a reasonable bet to finish in the top 3 at odds of 2.55 (Gamebookers).

Maria Riesch starts favourite in most books having outclassed the field in the last slalom held at La Molina in Spain winning by a mile. She put in a decent 1st run at Aspen before a mistake cost her in the second. She very much fits the skier on form mentioned in my opening paragraph.

The third slalom of the year was won by Sarkha Zahrobska. She lives in the top 10, habitually between 5th and 10th with the odd good day propelling her onto the podium. Very much a skier to rely on in head to heads.

Kathrin Zettel won the giant slalom at Semmering today (8th December) so will be flooded with confidence for the slalom. A 5th a 3rd and a DNF (5th after the 1st run) has been her slalom season so far and she will start as a danger.

Nicole Hosp, the skier who cost me a 66/1 winner last season (not on my christmas card list) is always a force in slalom races and while she has not won one yet she is skiing well enough to be a contender for the win in this.

The only other skier really worthy of a mention is Tanja Poutiainen. She is worth siding with when she hits top form but shes not quite there just yet.

I am keen to oppose Anja Paerson. No doubt she is a fantastic all rounder but she doesnt look great and has never been a great slalom skier anyway.

It would be a shock if the winner came outside of this lot. It has been noticable that with the soft snow conditions the courses have rutted up quite badly so a high start number is going to be a big disadvantage. A quick look at the start list reveals 5 of the big 6 (names in bold) start in the first 6, the exception is Zettel who starts at #11. For this reason alone it may be worth opposing her in head to heads.

In fact its for this reason almost alone that i am going to suggest backing the early starters in head 2 heads where their rival is starting significantly later and our skiers odds are 2.0 or very close. The exception is the Poutiainen tip, if she finishes she wins. These are the head 2 heads bets i suggest (number in brackets is their 1st run draw):

Head 2 heads

Poutiainen (1) to beat Aubert (10) 7 points @ 1.54 Pinnacle

Loseth (12) to beat Gius (21) 4 points @ 2.22 Pinnacle

Vonn (5) to beat Zettel (11) 4 points @ 2.0 Pinnacle

Aubert (10) to beat Bonjour (26) 7 points @ 1.90 Bwin

Zuzulova (4) to beat Paerson (13) 5 points @ 1.85 Bwin

Aubert (10) to beat Fleiss (23) 4 points @ 1.70 Nordicbet

Riesch (6) to beat Zettel (11) 5 points @ 1.85 Gamebookers

Outright win (5 points staked total)

Riesch 2.86 points @ 6.0 (Bwin, Gamebookers, Nordicbet)

Vonn 2.14 points @ 8.0 (Nordicbet)