NFL - Saints v Atlanta Falcons

7 December 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

This is a matchup in the ultra competitive NFC South. The Saints sit bottom of the division at 6-6 following a tough loss (which i watched) against the Bucs.

The Saints running game has become almost non-existant. Deuce McAllister has gone as a good RB in the NFL now, Reggie Bush looked rusty on his return from injury and is not a conventinal RB anyway while Pierre Thomas who has helped carry the load is now looking a bit limited.

Unusually the Saints passing game also struggled. Yes Drew Brees threw for almost 300 yards but they were forced to throw too often which meant the Bucs defense were able to concentrate on helping int he passing game and contributed to the 2 interceptions which enabled them to win the game.

Better news for the Saints on defense, they were able to get pressure on Jeff Garcia including 4 sacks. This was largely responsible for Garcias poor stats on the day and they also did ok against the run.

I dont talk about special teams very often but the Saints warrant a mention because they were pretty poor.

Perhaps of biggest concern, with 4 minutes to go and their season effectively on the line the Saints were unable to come up with a game winning drive and wound up actually turning the ball over and losing instead.

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Atlanta meanwhile justified my tip with a big win in San Diego. In truth the scoreline did not reflect the game, they demolished the Chargers. The Chargers points all came off turnovers and the Falcons failed to scored a TD from the 2 yard line despite going for it on 4th down at the end of the first half.

The Falcons offense line could well be the best line in the NFL. QB Ryan has only been sacked once in the last 4 games and the Chargers only managed to hit him twice. This gives Ryan time and confidence in the passing game to find open receivers. He is no great QB but more than competent enough and the 2 TD's he threw will send him into the Saints game high on confidence.

The Falcons running game remains in the very safe hands of Michael Turner. Quite what the Chargers fans made of watching LDT struggle for rushing yards while Turner managed 120 yards on 31 carries is anyones guess. The good thing abot a solid running game is you tend to stay on the field longer and the Falcons have a big advantage here.

As good as the offense is the Falcons defense was outstanding. They managed to totally shut down the Chargers rushing attack something they ought to be able to replicate against the Saints who are also struggling as previously mentioned.

Even more impressive was the Falcons secondary. Phillip Rivers came into the game as the leagues highest rated QB and having thrown the 2nd most TDs with 23. However the Falcons not only didnt give up a TD they also managed to not allow any passing plays over 20 yards

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The 2 teams met just 5 weeks ago with the Falcons winning. The Falcons were able to pressure Drew Brees constantly and picked him off 3 times, the Saints were unable to run the ball and the Falcons were able to pile up 34 points.

The way the Falcons won in San Diego suggests to me there is every chance they can repeat the trick in New Orleans. The game will follow an almost identical pattern, the Saints will be unable to move the ball much on the ground and will throw the ball predominantly. If the Falcons secondary plays as well as they did in San Diego they will win the game.

The Falcons also go into the game very much in charge of their own destiny and with such a tight division, divisional records will be critical and they very much have the edge in motivation. The Falcons are my pick for my "outsider of the week" bet and i make no apology for tipping them for a second week in a row for a win on the road.