NFL - Chargers v Atlanta Falcons

30 November 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers

This match and the odds provided have made me think of something in sports. As a great team or a player starts to decline how slow are you to react to that?

For example are Arsenals odds to win each week a little too low based on former glories rather than taking into account the fact that they have a lot of injuries, have a lot of internal troubles going on that we dont know about and quite simply look a shadow of the side that got to the Champions League final a few seasons ago?

Do Roger Federers odds reflect his former dominance in tennis tournaments now? Do his opponents now believe they can beat him where once they didnt?

All this brings me on to a former great in the San Diego Chargers. Now i say "great" in a loose term, they havent made it to the Superbowl but this is a team with winning records in the last 4 seasons going 46-18 in that timespan and making 3 playoff appearances.

This year has been very different. They are 4-7 but remarkably still in the playoff chase courtesy of a very weak division.

You will hear the word momentum mentioned a lot in the NFL and sadly for the chargers their momentum is a losing one. The Chargers have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and 5 of their last 7. While QB Phillip Rivers says they remain confident this is clearly one of those media quotes, how can a team so used to winning still be confident after what has been a disapointing season?

So why are they struggling? Well part of the reason is star running back LaDainian Tomlinson. He is on a pace for personal worsts in so many rushing categories and is not beating teams alone the way he has in the past. Tight End Antonio Gates is not having a good year either which has a major impact when you consider he is one of the best recieving TEs in the NFL.

This may not be such a problem, Phillip Rivers has been very good at Qualcomm and if the Chargers are to win then they will be reliant on another multi TD performance from Rivers.

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The Atlanta Falcons meanwhile have been one of the big suprise packages this year. They havent had a winning season since 2004 but boast a record of 7-4 so far this year. They come into this game on good form winning 3 of their last 4 and 5 of their last 7 in stark contrast to the Chargers. They had arguably their best performance of the year in beating the Panthers last week putting up a season high 45 points in the process.

The big reason for their turnaround is ironically the Chargers or more their lack of need for running back Michael Turner. He now has over 1000 yards rushing helping the Falcons to be the #2 rushing team in the NFL.

QB Matt Ryan has been helped by such a strong rushing attack meaning his transition into the NFL in this his rookie year has been relatively easy. WR Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are always a deep ball threat and when teams stack up against the run this is where the big plays in the passing game open up for Ryan.

I do worry about the Falcon defense who give up a lot of points but i am hoping the offense can continue their recent heavy scoring.

Lastly lets look at how the teams rank on offense and defense:

Atlanta ***************** San Diego

364.1 ypg (6th) Offense 341.5 ypg (13th)

212.5 ypg (14th) Passing 245.9 ypg (7th)

151.5 ypg (2nd) Rushing 95.5 ypg (25th)

351.6 ypg (24th) Defense 369.4 ypg (26th)

So much like last weeks Patriots vs Dolphins tip we have very little between the sides with a slight advantage to the visiting team this time the Falcons. Yet once again we have the outsiders in great form and the favourites not playing well at the moment.

The discrepancy in the odds (1.44 vs 2.9) do not really match up to what we have seen on the field this year for me. Having picked an outsider to win 4 weeks in a row now i keep expecting the run to end sometime but heres hoping we can hang on for another week.

Its not often in the NFL a 4-7 team is such a heavy favourite to beat a 7-4 team especially considering the Falcons have beaten some good teams on the way to that record and were especially impressive in their last game.

Personally i hate historical matchup data, i have never been one to subscribe to the theory that what has happened in the past can dictate the future (after all these are different teams, how can it make a difference) but for those of you who like this sort of thing the Falcons have won 6/7 games between these two teams including the last 4.

This is my outsider of the week and if last week was anything to go by maybe this pick will be the spark for another massive gamble after floods of cash went on the Patriots last week dropping their odds from 2.18 to 1.91 by kickoff. I shall watch with interest. :)