NFL - Dolphins v Patriots

23 November 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

This is a huge game for both teams in the AFC East as both are sitting a game back on the divison leading 7-3 Jets.

Whatever way you statistically look at this matchup these are two evenly matched teams.

Thru 10 games:

Both are 6-4

Dolphins have scored 209 points

Dolphins have conceded 197 points

Pats have scored 219 points

Pats have conceded 194 points

On offense the Patriots rank 8th in rush yards and 10th in pass yards, the Dolphins rank 9th and 12th. On defense once again very similar ranks.

The Patriots are coming off the back of Matt Cassels best performance throwing for 400 yards in the thrilling shootout OT loss to the Jets 34-31 last week. Cassel is really begining to click with his offense and the Patriots really need to win this one as its a massive match in the AFC East. While a loss would not eliminate them mathmatically it would be very damaging. For sure New Englands rushing is a cause for concern, if they get a decent lead they will struggle to run out the clock but the counter arguement is Cassel is playing well enough for the team to rely on his arm to see them home.

The Dolphins themselves are on a winning streak having won their last 4 matches after starting 2-4. The last 2 wins have been narrow unconvincing 2 point wins against very poor opposition in the 2-8 Raiders and 2-8 Seahawks.

Make no mistake this is a very different offense to the one that took the field in week 3 when the Dolphins ran riot in a 38-13 win where they debuted the wildcat offense. The Pats defense will be well schooled this time. Also the offensive line and Joey Porter in particular may not wreak so much havoc with Cassel on having been sacked 4 times in the last 3 games.

One final small advantage for the Patriots, they come into this came with a few extra days rest having played last week on a Thursday.

If you look at the last couple of games the Patriots are clearly playing the better football right now. They had a big advantage over the Jets who just came up with big plays when they needed them, something the Raiders and Seahawks failed in to do in pushing the Dolphins so close.

This could quite easily be a match between the 4-6 Dolphins and the 7-3 Patriots. I appreciate you can say that about a lot of teams but despite being well matched statistically i just think the Patriots are the better team and have that little bit more about them. Their players sure know how to win "must win" games and this is one.

In my opinion if the Patriots can stop Miami rushing the ball they will win and this will be the key to the game. As always someone could (and might) come up with a very reasoned arguement why the Dolphins are going to win this, tipping is always subjective and this is my NFL outsider tip of the week.

Keep stakes sensible, despite enjoying my best year of NFL bets by far my NFL record overall would still be best described as sketchy at best. ;)