MLB - Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers

MILWAUKEE (90 - 73) at PHILADELPHIA (93 - 70)

Thursday, 10/2/2008 6:00 PM C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. BRETT MYERS (R)

NL Division Series - Best of 5 - Game 2 - PHI leads 1-0

Taking the over in a CC Sabathia outing is always risky, not only the Under is 20-14 on Sabathia’s outings, but also because he keeps having quality outings after quality outings. However, considering this game spot and the 8 runs line, I’m confident this will go over the total posted.

First of all, Sabathia has been stellar, but even the best pitchers have their struggles and the spot he has today is dangerous. We are talking about a pitcher, who will make his 4th consecutive game with just 3 days off to rest between them. We all know how CC is powerful, but he is coming from a complete game against the Cubs and he has thrown 334 pitches on his last 3 outings! Nobody is unbeatable and a letdown by Sabathia in here is clearly possible. Especially when we are talking about the great offense of the Phillies, who has been stellar this season against southpaws and much higher than their average numbers. They have been averaging 5.4 runs/game vs LHP, which is 0,5 runs higher than their global average (4.9 runs/game) and this fact can’t be ignored. Besides that, the Over is 7-3-1 in the Phillies last 11 home games vs LHP and the last time they faced a LHP, they made 8 runs and 13 hits for .342 BA against Washington.

On the other side, the Phillies will send Brett Myers, who had a tremendous letdown on his last two games. Myers had an amazing second half of the season with 1.80 ERA in 11 starts, but on his last outings, he allowed 14 earned runs and 19 hits in just 8.1 innings! His confidence is ruined and who watched his last outing against the Braves saw him crying while leaving the field. He hasn’t been pitching well on day games this season (2-4 and 5.70 ERA), so this won’t be a good spot for him at all.

I expect both teams to have enough conditions to have good offensive performances today and who doesn’t remember how Sabathia pitched in the postseason, where in 3 outings, he had 8.80 ERA and allowed 15 runs!!?? After all, he is an human being and with Myers back in struggling mode, I think we have great value for the over. Take the over in here.

Pick : Over 8
Odds : 2.01
Stake : 7 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Match Result : 5-2
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt

 Liked this post? Subscribe to our RSS feed and get loads more!