Allsvenskan - Bofors IK v Huddinge IK

If you follow my picks regularly you remember my Huddinge - Mariestad pick. I backed Mariestad on handicap, but Huddinge won 5:2 at home. It was unlucky loss as Mariestad was equal team through the game, but couldn't amend 0:2 deficit from first four minutes. Round after that same team, Mariestad, won against Huddinge's today opponents - Bofors. It was 2:0 on Mariestad ice, they've allowed Bofors only nine shots in first two periods. Now, both teams have three points, Bofors has home win over Sundsvall, Huddinge has home win over Mariestad. Huddinge has better goal difference, they scored average of 3,25 goals per match, exact number of average goals that Bofors concedes. Bofors scores only 1,75 goals per match. But, Bofors has better avg goals conceded number, as Huddinge allows 4,50 gls per match.

This are pure numbers, but even they can say something. Huddinge scored almost twice as many goals as Bofors, while they conceded only five more. Although both their away games were losses, they didn't played bad, in eg. against Troja much stronger teams will struggle, and they've lost only 1:3. Bofors doesn't have any good results either, they've won at home against favorized Sundsvall, but seems like guests underestimated them as it was 4:0 already after 2nd period. That means that they've allowed four goals in last period! Bofors just isn't team that is "big", team that can win with high margins. Yes, they have better H2H, last season they won easy against Huddinge, but this is new season and Bofors doesn't look much more impressive then Huddinge. Two goals advantage for away team should be too much.

Huddinge will today miss Wendel, Hallin, Lindarv and Sjoren. All previously injured and without a point in this season. Bofors today is without defenders Johan Magnusson, David Brack and attacker Tobias Thermell. Team should also welcome back Andreas Sundin.

Bofors currently has worst PP efficiency, only 3,57% (1 out of 28!!). To illustrate it better next worst in PP efficiency, Bjorkloven, has 10% efficiency. I can't see them scoring many goals today, even if they will play better in special team situations. They should also concede at least two, so for our bet to lose they will need to score five. Not likely to happen, in fact i think that this match is much more equal then odds show and that Huddinge can take today at least a point or two...

Pick : Huddinge (+2)
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Bet365
Match Result : 4-2
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