Veikkausliiga - Honka Espoo v KuPS

Honka Espoo have managed to get in 2-points range of Inter Turku, after their last round win over Vaasa and Inter's draw at Tampere United this round makes it even more interesting.

Honka will be playing at Inter on Sunday, 5 October, which is in one week from now, so they have to win today to equaloize them in the table and make sure they have a shot at the title. At home, Honka are 7-3-1 with a 22-7 GD. They are in very good form, winning 9 of their last 10 league games, and today they look for another important win over relegation contender KuPs Kuopio.

KuPs are 1 point above the line at the moment, in the relegation playoff spot. Vaasa, RoPs and IFK Marihamn are their contenders and it wil be an interesting fight for salvation in these last 4 rounds. KuPs have been quite impressing at home lately, winning against HJK and Mariehamn and drawing with Tampere and Vaasa. But away, they have been a disaster, losing 1-8 at Lahti, followed by a 1-1 draw at extremely poor KooTeePee and then losing 0-4 at Inter Turku. Today it is not going to get any better, as another in-form promotion contender will host them.

Since KuPs was back in Veikkausliiga in 2006, Honka got a 2-2 draw away in the first match, followed by a 4-0 win at home. Than KuPs dropped again in '07, while in 2008, Honka won in the Liigacup 2-0 at KuPs, followed by a 2-1 win also away in the league. Now they return home set on repeating the 2006 performance and equalizing Inter in the standings.

After the derby, we will have the World Cup International break. After it, Honka will be playing at home with Tampere, and away at Mariehamn, while Inter will be travelling to Mypa and will be hosting in-form Jaro. Clearly a better schedule for Honka here, so there should be a good spriti coming into this match too.

Honka have a much worse GD than Inter, so in case of another 1-1 tie in the derby, that will matter. Honka should be looking for a blowout today, to be able to get closer to Inter's superior by 8 GD, and than hope for at least a draw next week to preserve the title chances.

What worried me a bit was that in their last home game, Honka played poor KTP and they won hard in the second half by 2-1, in a match that should have been another blowout for the reasons above. Still, i am confident in home win here 10/10, and i will go 6 units on the -1.5 handicap, as i believe after the 4-1 at defensive Vaasa, Honka can get another excellent result before the big title match. Good luck.

Pick : Honka -1.5
Odds : 1.88
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Match Result : 2-1
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