NFL - Washington v Saints

For this game I studied the totals line, which is currently at 42 points, but which opened at 43,5 points. I decided to study the totals in here, because I believe this game will be an high scoring game. This game will depend from what the Saints will be capable to do, not only offensively, but also and especially on their defense. The Saints defeated at home the Bucs last week by 24-20 and Drew Brees had an amazing game with a QB rating of 124.9 and with 343 yards (23-32 in passing attempts). The Saints finished the game with a total of 438 yards gained, which is a good indicator from what the offense of the Saints, especially now with Reggie Bush at a phenomenal level. This offensive performance was even more amazing, as it was already the Bucs, who were statically the second best defensive team in the league last season and first in pass defense, with 170.5 yards allowed per game. All the cylinders of the offense was already fired up and I don’t expect an offensive letdown from them, as Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league.

On the other side, the defense of the Saints is a disaster. Four injuries, including three starters, threaten to decimate the Saints’ defense. Linebacker Mark Simoneau will undergo back surgery and miss the entire season. Linebacker Scott Fujita (knee), safety Roman Harper (hamstring), cornerback Randall Gay (hamstring/illness) and tailback Aaron Stecker (hamstring) are all out of this game. Simoneau’s absence will likely mean a permanent role on the team for rookie linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar. The defense of the Saints wasn’t an elite defense before all these injuries, as they were just 26th in total defense last season with 348.1 yards allowed per game, but now with all these injuries, the scenario is extremely tough for them.

They will face the Redskins, who lost in their season debut in New York against the Giants. The team just scored 7 points, which didn’t impress anybody. Their QB Jason Campbell only managed to get 133 yards and the Redskins went scoreless during the whole second half. However this weak offensive performance in that game is understandable. First of all, the team faced one of the best defensive teams in the league, who was coming from a number of great defensive performances in a row, which took them to the Superbowl and they were coming to that game very motivated. On the other side, this was the first game of a lot of people in the organization. New head coach, new offensive system and all in a national TV Game against a very strong defense. This collapse wasn’t surprising at all. However there were some advantages from that. One of them was that the game was played on a Thursday, so the Redskins had some extra rest days, in order to improve their west coast offensive system. So for today, I expect an offensive unit a lot more coordinated and the Redskins scoring some points, which won’t be hard for them at all, having in account the defensive problems of the Saints.

Come to this, I expect this game to be an high scoring affair and ending well above the 42 points mark. Take the over in here.

Pick : Over 42
Odds : 1.95
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Match Result : 29-24
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt

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