ATP - Carlos Moya v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Maybe to some readers it could look that I don't like Carlos, and that's why I am betting against him quite often but it is not true. I fully respect 32 years old Spaniard Carlos Moya for his whole career. But I won't bet for him in times when we can see that he won't return to the top and now he plays for fun, which means that when the game goes fine Carlos can upset and fight with many players, but when he have a little weaker day he just give up and go to the next city, next tour. Huge bag of experience still gives him big advantage, first serve also from time to time works really good, but stamina and fighting spirit isn't the same like in times when 2 years ago and three years he beat his next opponent at Bucharest tour. Carlos Moya leads h2h race with another Spaniard, 25 years old Guillermo Garcia-Lopez with 3-1 result. In all matches on clay Carlos won without set lost, but for Moya two years is a huge amount of time and many things changes. Year ago Carlos was playing two class better and we have to face it that tomorrow won't be such piece of cake like it were in 2006. Garcia-Lopez improved from that time, and Moya is older and weaker and don't poses such motivation. Moya passed smoothly through two rounds, he lost a set in first round against Alberto Martin, but he just decided to gave up the tie-break in second set when after silly mistake he gave his opponent an mini-break. Andujar-Alba, another Spaniard, quite talented but player that stooped on challenger level also wasn't able to bite Moya. But in second set interesting thing. Moya looked like he was too tired to fight at opponent serve. He was giving points at Andujar serve nearly for free. He mobilized only at tie-break, and honestly he won this tie-break only because younger Spaniard burned and shot double fault in key moment. Andujar in my opinion is definitely weaker player currently than Garcia-Lopez, who proved his value, surprisingly eliminating Nicolas Almagro in second round. Garcia-Lopez like to play both on clay and hard, he do not fear long exchanges and quick winners and in my opinion he will be the hardest task for Moya in this tour. In last months he didn't shine, loses to good and not so good players, but I always connect Garcia-Lopez game with something solid that we can't underestimate. Beating Almagro, even if Nicolas have a freaky-head is some kind of success and as I looked on game statistics I quite sure that he is able to fight with Moya experience. It is good time to take revenge for loses in 2005 and 2006 with Carlos. Only big experience on Moya side can help him and of course Garcia-Lopez, if he will play worse than with Almagro. Odds are tasty and we have to try younger Spaniard.

Pick : Garcia-Lopez to win!
Odds : 2.30
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Stan James
Match Result : 2-1
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