Kontinental League - Ak Bars Kazan v Avangard Omsk

Derby match we have here, and i'm aiming for a great match with a lots of goals.

Both teams are aiming on title, and first place in their divisions. Although derby games are hard to predict, Kazan usually has goal fests and Avangard isn't far either.

This two teams have really strong attacks, but their defensive lines look a bit weak. Kazan leaded by Morozov even strengthen their attacking lines with additions like Kuzmin and Kapanen, but their goalies and defenders left them. So, their defensive line looks bad, i don't know what were they thinking and why they didn't brought some other players in addition. Their pre-season looked like this:

01/08/2008: Ak Bars - Severstal 3-2

02/08/2008: Ak Bars - SKA 4-2

03/08/2008: Ak Bars - HC MVD 1-2

05/08/2008: Ak Bars - Dinamo Moscow 3-6

06/08/2008: Ak Bars - Sibir 3-1

15/08/2008: Vityaz Chekhov - Ak Bars Kazan 2-4

16/08/2008: Atlant Mytischi - Ak Bars Kazan 8-1

21/08/2008: Ak Bars Kazan - Lada Togliatti 4-2

26/08/2008: Ak Bars - Metallurg Mg 3-2OT

27/08/2008: Ak Bars - Salavat 4-3

28/08/2008: Ak Bars - Traktor 6-6

They conceded average more then three goals per match, and although they played good in derby games against Magnitka and Salavat they conceded eight goals against Atlant and six goals against Traktor that played with mixed team!! Just too much, even if they concede today two or three i think it will be enough for over.

Avangard is in almost the same situation. They made one of the biggest signings this season, bringing Jagr, and with Rosa, Klepis, Popov Kuryanov, Svitov... they should have the strongest attack in the league. Their defense is totally new, and it was obvious already in pre season with some stupid goals and high scores. Only Nikitin and Kurbatov are players from last season, all others are new, mostly brought from Moscow teams (Spartak, CSKA) and Traktor. Their pre-season is similar to Kazan's:

05/08/2008: Avangard - HK 36 Skalica 6-3

06/08/2008: Avangard - Traktor 2-4

07/08/2008: Avangard - Spartak 2-3

09/08/2008: Avangard - Metallurg Mg 7-5

10/08/2008: Avangard - Salavat 3-2OT

17/08/2008: Avangard - Barys 5-1

19/08/2008: Avangard - Barys 3-4SO

22/08/2008: Avangard - Sibir 1-6

23/08/2008: Avangard - Amur 5-3

25/08/2008: Avangard - Barys 6-3

26/08/2008: Avangard - Sibir 6-5OT

Average goals conceded - 3,55. Way too much for team that is looking to rebounce after bad season (eight in regular championship, eliminated in 1/8). Still Avangard will be among the best teams in league, but they will sometimes make "weird" results. Eleven goals that they conceded in two games with weak Sibir show it. But the games against Salavat and Magnitka showed that they can play against strong teams and win.

So, two teams in derby match (read: high motivation). Both have really strong attack and weak defense. What can i say but over?

Pick : over 5,5
Odds : 2.00
Stake : 5 / 10
Bookmaker : Expekt
Match Result : 4-2
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