Carnegie League - Dundalk FC v Outright winner

Bet on Dundalk to be First Division champion in 2008.

After 24 rounds we have only four teams that can get the title:

1. Dundalk 51 pts

2. Shelbourne 46 pts

3. Waterford 46 pts

4. Sporting Fingal 43 pts

...

There are 12 more games to be played. That means we've finished 2/3 of the season. Fiirst i would eliminate Sporting from title race. They just don't have enough consistency. This season they managed to beat only Waterford once of this top trio. They played nine games against them recording four draws, four loses and only that one win. Unexpected draw with Kildare in last round shows that they aren't to be trusted. Eight points difference from first Dundalk should be too much for them to get the title.

Other three teams have much higher chances, with Dundalk having the most, because of their five points win of course. Here's schedule till the end of the season for every team (home games written with capital letters):

Dundak - Limerick, Athlone, KILDARE, SHELBOURNE, Monaghan, LONGFORD, Wexford, SPORTING, Waterford, LIMERICK, ATHLONE, Kildare

Shelbourne - Sporting, WATERFORD, Limerick, Dundalk, KILDARE, MONAGHAN, Athlone, WEXFORD, Longford, SPORTING, Waterford, LIMERICK

Waterford - KILDARE, Shelbourne, MONAGHAN, WEXFORD, Longford, ATHLONE, Sporting, Limerick, DUNDALK, Kildare, SHELBOURNE, Monaghan

I will try to make a point estimation for every team:

Dundalk should have "sure" wins at home against Kildare, Limerick, Longford and Athlone, also away trips to Kildare and Wexford should end with three pointers. High chances for three points are also away at Limerick, Monaghan, Athlone and home game with Sporting should end with some points. Derby games with Shels and Waterford are totally open, and i think they will take at least a point, four points at best.

That would be from 23 points in worst case to 30 or even more points at best case.

Shelbourne has one home match more, but they have more derby games. Three pointers with Kildare, Monaghan, Wexford and Limerick at home, and Athlone away are almost imperative. Also trips to Limerick and Longford should end with some points. But, away games with Dundalk and Waterford shouldn't end with many points, same as both games with Sporting (there i think they will snap 4).

Estimation: from 20-30 points

Waterford is the strongest of this three when playing at home (still unbeaten, along with Sporting). Kildare, Monaghan, Wexford, Athlone, all four should lose there. They should also take some points away against Longford, Limerick, Kildare and Monaghan, same as in home games with Dundalk and Shelbourne. Away trips to Sporting and Shelbourne shouldn't bring them too much points.

Estimation: 20-26 points

Even if everything won't go as expected i think Dundalk five points advantage in present should be enough to amend potential surprises. That's their main plus. Other advantages are, only three derby games until the end of season, two of which are at home (Shels, Sporting). Minus is their "losers" history, as in last two seasons they failed to promote, in very similar situation to this.

Shels are big name, but they have five derby games, three away. They are usually good in games like those, but they sometimes spill points against weaker opposition (Monaghan, Longford, Wexford this season...).

Waterford has slim chances against this two. They are newly relegated team, absolutely great at home, but awful away. Four derby games, two away two at home. I think that will be their success in them, 50%.

In worst outcome by my opinion Dundalk would take 23 points, Shels 30, and Waterford 26 points. Enough for Shels to promote. But chances for that aren't high. I would rate Dundalk to win around 75%, maybe even more. That would be odds of 1.33, while odds offered are 1.91.

Two thirds of season is gone, in that time Dundalk made 5 points advantage. In this remaining 1/3 they shouldn't drop that advantage, in fact i believe they can make it even bigger. Off course, if something unexpected happens, deduction of points (not likely), series of injuries (more likely) or something third, then this estimation might prove wrong. Still, i can't resist but to take this with high stake, great offer...

Pick : Outright winner - Dundalk
Odds : 1.91
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : 10bet
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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