Carnegie League - Longford Town v Kildare County

I think i've betted on Longford only once this season, unfortunately it was back in May against Kildare when they played goalless draw. Longford is funny team, they expected fight for promotion back to Premier League, but they didn't had quality to mount the serious challenge. Well, before the half of the season was over it was obvious that they will be only mid table team, team that will have problems facing tougher opposition. Now, they are only 7th, closer to the bottom of the pack then to the top and fans are unsatisfied with that. Longford did what they could in transfer window, bringing few new players, and results came almost immediate. After six games losing streak they finally won, and in great manner, 3:1 away at in form Limerick. That win raised the spirits and showed what Longford is capable of, especially if not playing the leading trio (Dundalk, Waterford, Sporting) as this three teams are "guilty" for half of Longford total losses. So, Longford is capable to win, they just need some weaker opposition, and Kildare would be my first choice for that. Longford will have full squad to choose from.

Kildare is team that is always somewhere near the bottom, since season 2004 when they almost promoted they are in descending and this season it is especially obvious. At the beginning of July there were some words about unpaid salaries, some players left the team, some juniors arrived and two weeks ago on their official site they published that Kildare applied to enter a team in the A Championship next season. It could mean they will withdraw from Carnaige league and in that case i don't see players really motivated. Kildare are in even worst form then Longford, picking only three points in last seven games, winning away at Wexford. But in contrast to Longford they have much worst numbers in goals scored and goals conceded columns. Kildare conceded 42 goals in 22 games, next worst defense, Monaghans' conceded 34. Attack is also one of the worst in leagues, but Longford also has troubles scoring so i won't take it as plus for them. Still, Kildare's away record with goal difference 7:25 is worst in league and i doubt that they will score here. So all is on Longford. Kildare will miss their striker Phillip Hughes.

As a conclusion, Kildare are really poor team, their motivation following their recent results and some other non-football administrative things is highly questionable and they will face Longford, team that is coming back in form after bad period. Longford will have home advantage, full squad and higher spirit, not to mention quality. Average odds of 1.60 are not really worth IMO, but 1.75 offered by Expekt is well worth of shot.

Pick : Longford
Odds : 1.75
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Expekt
Match Result : 0-1
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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