MLB - Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds

CINCINNATI (51 - 60) at WASHINGTON (40 - 70)

Sunday, 8/3/2008 1:35 PMJOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. COLLIN BALESTER (R)

Washington after 9 defeats in a row has finally managed to find a good run and they can thank for facing the Reds right now, which are in a tremendous slump. I know it's a risk to back a 40-70 team, however the fact they are an home dog in a Sunday afternoon game, gives them some value. The Nationals are 2-0 in this series and they are now looking for the sweep. For that they will send Colin Balester (1-3, 5.13 ERA), who even though he doesn't have good numbers, he is coming from two good outings against the Phillies and the Giants, where he has just allowed 5 runs in 11 innings and he has easily managed to close out the innings.

On the other side, the Reds are now 1-7 L8 and they will send the rookie Johnny Cueto (7-10, 5.02 ERA), who hasn't been able to do good outings on the road and actually the team is 2-8 L10 road games with Cueto as the SP. Besides that, they are coming from a sequence of runs he has allowed on his last 4 games: 5-3-6-5 and his record of P/IP on these games: 18.3-20.0-17.4-16.6. I expect him to struggle today, the Nationals have regained their confidence in this series, especially thanks to two young players: Bonficio and Gonzalez.

"These two guys have brought a big-time level of energy," Acta said. "Right now just by having a lot of guys like that, you just expect that type of energy, and why not? These guys are the youngest team in the big leagues right now, and we shouldn't be lacking any type of energy."

So, with all these facts, I'll take the risk and go for the home dog.

Pick : ML Washington
Odds : 2.13
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Match Result : 4-2
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://andregomes.apostaganha.pt

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