Tour De France - Sylvain Chavanel v Amael Moinard

Tour de France - Stage 18

Sebastian Chavanel (2.180) vs Amael Moinard (1.781)

With the toughest stage of the tour behind them the peleton will be breathing a sigh of relief at a slightly easier day in the saddle altho they still face the 196.5km of Stage 18 - Bourg d'Oisans - Saint Étienne. I say easier, you try riding 196.5km in the French sun and see how you like it!

The profile of the stage suggests to me that some riders a long way down on the GC (general classification) will be allowed to escape the peleton as there is quite a long gap between the first climb of the day and the last 2 where CSC might give it some welly or may just choose to ride tempo and keep the race under control.

Sylvain Chavanel has been very prominent so far in the tour attacking on many occasions and winning the combative rider jersey on stages 2 and 6 as well as having a go on stage 14 which was similar to this stage. I really like betting on him for this stage because:

1. He may go off on the attack early.

2. He has the ability to stay in the main peleton and attack in one of the final climbs to try to take the stage

3. He will definitely try to go on the final climb if the bunch are together as he did in stage 14

4. He has a decent enough sprint to be a contender if the race is together at the finish.

Amael Moinard is nothing like as aggressive and certainly does not have the class Chavanel does. He had a try on a similar profiled stage (11) but got caught while his team Cofidis have been sending riders up the road almost all tour long. Of course anything could happen and Moinard could attack again himself, there is no way of being certain. I even looked up where Moinard was born as french riders tend to go for their home stages and he wasnt born close to the start or finish (in fact Chavanel was born and lives far closer).

The profile just looks like a chance for Chavanel to do something and perhaps best of all if they are together at the finish we have over 2.0 on the coin flip of who crosses the line first which is never a bad position to be in.

Theres no way Chavanel should be 2.18 in this matchup, i make him more a 1.75 favourite.



Pick : Chavanel to beat Moinard
Odds : 2.18
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Pinnacle
Match Result : 27th vs 46th
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