Eircom League - Derry City v Bohemians

I was in big doubt about this match. Should i try over 2,5 at odds that seem eggagerated or Derry level ball as more secure option. I've decided for 2nd choice. I'll try to explain why...

Bohs are in incredible league form, only one loss in 16 games, three draws and 12 wins!!! But, they weren't really convincing lately, playing against weaker teams like Harps and Bray, who managed to create few chances which more quality teams would use. Bohs incredible season is even better when we look only their away record: W8-D1-L0 13:3 with wins over Pats and Drogs. But they are yet to play against Derry and Cork, teams that are "force at home" in Ireland.

Derry is 2nd best home team, just behind the Cork. Their main problem through the season was lack of consistency as they played in cold-hot style. Their main strength is their attack which produced 24 goals, same number as Bohs attack. If attack doesn't work, Derry doesn't win. Defense is their weak part and they certainly have problems with it. So far at home they were very good, but recent losses to Pats (0:3) and Cork (2:3) shook them. It all returned on right track with 4:1 win over their tomorrows opponent - Bohs in League Cup. Then another home win, 4:0 vs Bray, followed and i will dare to say that they found their form (again). Brandywell was never easy venue for Bohs and tomorrow night it won't be easy either.

This will be derby match of the round, stadium should be packed and in that circumstances neither of teams will want to risk much. Bohs can make incredible boost to their title hopes, while Derry with a win can get back in race. Everyone are aware of it and it should be tight match, so i decided to skip over and back home team.

Except of home advantage there are few other things going in Derry's favor. First, most important, Bohs played Intertoto Cup in mid-week, getting eliminated against FC Riga on away goals (0:1, 2:1), it was probably a shock for the team, not to mention only few days to recover. Second important thing is that Bohs are still troubled with injuries, Ken Oman, Glenn Cronin and Mark Rossiter are still out, same as Byrne who might sit on the bench. With captain Hunt going to immidiate retirement Bohs midfield looks pretty weak. That should affect their creativity and gameplay. Third, and last thing, that is "minus" to Bohs is schedule. They have three "easy" games at home following this away trip and if they keep that in mind they will probably fail to win here. Even in their pre-match statements they stated that "point is enough". With UCD, Cobh and Shamrock as their next opponent they will most likely take 7, if not all nine points and get really close to title. It could go against them in this match IMO, so i don't see them winning here, in worst case draw.

Derry at level ball looks like a really good bet to me, Bohs will be satisfied with draw and they will most likely start with that in mind. Derry beaten them rather easy (but with mixed team) in League Cup and i hope they will show the same tomorrow night.

Pick : Derry (0)
Odds : 1.90
Stake : 6 / 10
Bookmaker : Mansion88
Match Result : 0-0
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://scythe.blogabet.com/

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