ATP - Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal

ATP Wimbledon - Roger Federer (SWI) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP)

And for the third time in a row, the Wimbledon final puts face to face Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, clearly the best two players of the decade. This is also for the third time in a row, a revenge game for Federer, as just like in the previous years, he has again lost the Roland Garros final against Nadal. But the case this year is different. In 2005 Federer lost by 1-6 6-1 6-4 7-6. In 2006 the Swiss lost by 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4. But this season, he was absolutely slaughtered by 6-1 6-3 6-0. We can't even compare the feeling of revenge Federer will feel today to the revenge he had in other two Wimbledon finals, where he won both. The truth is that unlike what most people thought, Federer bounced back really quickly after the humiliation in Paris and he is yet to lose a single set in the grass season until now, having won the 28 sets he has played after the Roland Garros final. He is serving unbelievably well and that's something he has to do in order to succeed today. He has been winning way over 80% of the points played on his first serve and he is also putting a lot of first serves in, having a percentage of almost 70% during this tournament. The main difference between Federer on clay and Federer on grass is the movement on court and the footwork, which is perfect on grass, where he seems to be in the right position every time to hit another winner. It's true that sometimes he still has problems to hit well on his backhand side with consistence, but that's something he has been improving during the tournament. His number of unforced errors has been incredibly low, with the highlight being his six unforced errors against Ancic in the fourth round. Federer is 12-0 on Grand Slam finals being a favorite, which is the ultimate proof how he is capable of playing well on these high pressure moments. The main concern for Federer is his mental ability when he plays against Nadal. It's obvious that Federer has tremendous respect for Nadal and fears him. But it's also true that Federer respects Nadal for years and the last time Nadal defeated Federer outside clay was more than two years ago, with Federer having won all four matches against Nadal outside clay. It's true that Federer struggles mentally when he has Nadal on the other side of the court, but that hasn't prevented him from winning those matches on fast surfaces.

Rafael Nadal has been playing extremely well since Roland Garros, but that happens every year since 2005. Nadal isn't a great grass courter, but he uses his intelligence on court to hit the right shot at the right time and then his fighting spirit and physical condition does the rest. He has just dropped a set in this tournament, but he is just 3-3 ATS in this tournament, which shows that even though he has been playing extremely well, the bookies tend to overrate him. The Spanish player has been serving very well in here, but Federer knows Nadal's serve very well and he can attack it extremely well, especially with his forehand aggressive and deep return shots. Nadal loves the baseline battles, but Federer will certainly not use the slice so much as he used in Roland Garros and he will try to keep the points short, trying to solve his service games just with his first serve. In fact, if Federer continues to serve as he has been serving in the previous rounds (he was just broken once the whole tournament), then he won't have problems in holding serve in that way. He has been serving a lot of aces and service winners and if we look to the past four matches between Federer and Nadal outside clay, we see that Federer averaged 13,75 aces per match, while Nadal averaged... 2,5 aces, having just served two aces in the last three matches (average of 0.66 aces). This means something extremely important for today's match. Federer will get out of problems with his serve. Nadal will need to enter a baseline battle to do it. And this isn't clay and on grass, Nadal's edge over Federer in the baseline is minimal.

This is going to be a tremendous final and it has the material to enter the Top 10 of the best tennis matches of the decade. However, there is no reason why Federer, who is 66-0 on his last 66 matches on grass, 28-0 on sets played on grass this season, 12-0 on Grand Slam finals outside clay, 12-0 on Grand Slam finals as a favorite, unbeatable on grass since 2002, winner of the past five editions of the Wimbledon tournament be priced so high against a player, which obviously has the game to trouble Federer, but doesn't have a great serve to save him for Federer's great baseline play, especially on his forehand side, which will allow him to come to the net and finish the points easily. The big edge in here isn't the mental edge of Nadal over Federer. The big edge in here is the big serve of Federer above the serve of Nadal, which can't produce aces and give the Spanish player some easy service games. This is an huge revenge game for Federer and he is going to serve big. The pressure will be on Nadal's service game and Federer is too good not to take the chances he is going to get on his return games. Take Federer to win.

Play 4* units (Super Play) on Roger Federer to win @1.80 on Ladbrokes

Pick : Roger Federer
Odds : 1.80
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : Ladbrokes
Match Result : 2-3
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com

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