Euro 2008 - Portugal v Germany

19 June 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

Portugal vs Germany - Euro 2008 Quarter Final

I almost fell off my chair when i saw how this had been priced up. I was fully expecting Portugal to be 2.0 favourites to win the game in 90 minutes yet there they are at 2.63.

In my Croatia vs Germany preview i wrote how i felt Germany were suspect at the back and that Croatia with their wing play, particularly Srna may be able to exploit that. As it turned out i looked like a genius because its exactly what happened altho i have to confess i was expecting them to get crosses in rather than score !

Last night the Germans beat Austria but Austria were once again able to get in behind Germany at will and had they had a little more composure could easily have scored a couple of goals. They also exposed a frailty by pinging diagonal balls from full back splitting the 2 centre backs. I am not sure Portugal will be able to utilise this tactic much playing just one up front as they do.

However i do think they will get in behind Germany A LOT. The Portuguese fullbacks and wingers do stay out wide and the Gemran defenders get pulled about all over the place. Friedrich has come in to replace Jansen at full back, such was Jansens troubles and it remains the big weak spot in the German defense. That said the centre backs arent great either, even the German media claim Mertzelder and Mertesacker make one big mistake per game.

We have yet to see the best of Cristiano Ronaldo for me too. His pace and dribbling ability are well known and he will surely utilise it to devastating effect. If he gets no joy from Lahm i expect he will swap wings and attack Friedrich at some point in the game.

I actually think Germany are the worst team in the quarter finals. The defense looks very poor, the midfield lacks invention, the 2 main strikers havent scored a goal between them and their only goals are coming from a striker being played on the wing. Gomez in particular looks totally devoid of any confidence, i'd be suprised (and delighted) if he starts. The only half decent team Germany have faced played them off the pitch and Portugal are possibly an even better side than Croatia.

Yet more good news comes in the form of the rest the players have had. Germany played last night, Portugal the night before. Germany played their first 11, Portugal rested 8 players. So Portugal have players coming in on a weeks rest, the Germans will have to play a 4th game in 2 weeks. I am not remotely concerned by the Portugal side who lost to the Swiss as they had little to play for having breezed thru their opening 2 games in some style and was basically a side made up of squad players anyway.

I am thrilled its Portugal who get to play the Germans in the quarter finals, i cannot think of another team who matchup better against them in the competition.

I am going to recommend a bet here of a Portuguese win in 90 minutes but i wouldnt put anyone off backing Portugal with draw no bet, or backing Portugal to qualify. I think its pretty obvious i expect them to tear thru Germany with ease.