ATP - Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal

ATP Roland Garros - Roger Federer (SWI) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP)

This one is actually pretty simple to explain. It's true that Federer and Nadal played long sets in the two matches they have played on clay against each other this season, but that was due to the fact that Federer was up by 4:0 and 5:1 in two of the three sets, which went longer than 10 games. I don't expect any set today to go longer than 10 games, simply to the fact that Nadal won't get so down on a set like he was on the matches between the two players in Monte Carlo and Hamburg. Why? He is simply playing too good for that. Nadal is probably playing his best ever on clay in this tournament and he simply doesn't commit unforced errors, which obligates Federer to win the points against Nadal from long baseline rallies, where Nadal can put pressure on Federer's one handed backhand, which can't handle such pressure on clay, or from free points on his serve, which is also unlikely to happen today, as Nadal has never allowed Federer to hit more than 8 aces on matches against him on clay, excluding a classic match between these two players in Rome in 2006, which had five sets and 57 games played. And Federer still just hit 10 aces, that's two per set, nothing remarkable.

Nadal is playing unbelievably well and not even Djokovic was able to take a set off him. If the same happens with Federer today, then the total will go under, unless Nadal wins by 7:6 7:6 7:6, where it would still be a push and not a loss. Federer's three matches against Nadal have always go under the posted mark today (37, 38 and again 38 games). It may seem too close on the posted total to take a side, but the true is that today's match won't be as close as the other ones, as Federer is far from playing his best right now and Nadal has found an extra gear on his already unbelievably great game on clay.

It's no secret that Nadal has the edge on clay against Federer and 40 games would automatically need this match to go to four very close sets. That shouldn't be the case. Besides Nadal is likely to get by two breaks (6:1 or 6:2), I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal wins today's match without dropping a set. Federer got broken 3 times against Benneteau, 3 times against Gonzalez and 3 times against Monfils, so this number should be doubled today against the best returner in the world on clay. Federer will get some great winners, but Nadal's is just an alien on clay right now and he will simply outplay Federer, attacking his backhand and appear in mid-court to finish the points, while he couldn't do that two years ago. Nadal won't need so many games to take out Federer today and even if he loses a set, he should still win by something like 6:3 4:6 6:2 6:4. Take the under in here. Super Play.

Play 4* units (Super Play) on Under 39 Games @1.87 on 5Dimes

Pick : Under 39 Games
Odds : 1.87
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : 5dimes
Match Result :
Tipster Personal Link/Sponsor: http://www.andregomes.com

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