Euro 2008 - Netherlands v Special Bet

29 June 2008

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

Arjen Robben

How many goals will he score in the tournament?

With so many bookies and so many specials its really easy to get carried away with placing hundreds of bets but i am going to try to limit myself to a select few.

Initially i was looking to oppose individual players in the goalscorer markets, players such as Robin van Persie or Frank Ribery who are carrying injuries. The logic here is that they will play a little of the tournament allowing the bets to stand but they will not be playing to their full potential as well as being highly unlikely to play the full 90 minutes of the games they are involved in.

I only mention this as it gives you some insight into the way i approach tournament betting, i look at the novelty markets and try to find some value there.

While looking i found a series of bets offered at Unibet on how many goals a player will score and the player who took my eye was Arjen Robben of Holland (or Netherlands if you prefer).

I watched Holland play against Wales earlier this month and he was by far the best attacking player on the pitch for me. Holland typically play a 4-3-3 (or 4-5-1 if you prefer) formation with RVN spearheading the attack and being joined by 2 attacking midfielders/wingers joining in at will and by and large relieved of too much defensive responsibilty. Robben is one of these 2 players.

Robben scored in that Wales game, his first goal for his country in almost 2 years! However if he is going to be employed in this attacking role once again he is going to get a lot of chances to score.

He is blessed with decent pace and has the ability to go past players at will, he is a decent header of a ball (as witnessed by a memorable goal he scored for Real Madrid against Osasuna when they came back in the last few minutes to win the title and pocket me a decent win in running in the process). The one thing which has suprised me about Robben is his age, despite looking about 35 and seeming to have been around forever he is only 24!

Arjen Robben has scored 9 goals in 33 games for his country which is a pretty decent return averaging a goal every 3 and a half games.

Another thing i like about Robben is that he only played half a season for Real Madrid so goes into this tournament a little fresher than most.

All of which i am sure is rivetting stuff, the bottom line here is goals or more specifically 1 goal because that is all unibet are asking him to score. They have quoted odds on this happening of 2.05.

Now i am going to take worst case scenario here and assume Holland only play 3 matches. They are of course in a horrible group containing Italy, France and Romania which doesnt look particularly promicing for heaps of goals.

If you look at his best "anytime goalscorer" odds for his opening game against the Italians you will find he is a best priced 5/1. Assuming he remains those odds against France and Romania (he would be less i would have thought) 1 unit staked on every game would return 6 points if he scored a goal in one of them meaning for 3 points staked a return of 6 points or 2.0 odds.

Now we have odds of 2.05 on him scoring once and should Holland make it out of the group then we get extra games for Robben to try and score.

So in conclusion we have what i percieve to be very fair odds on Robben scoring during the tournament guaranteeing us 3 chances to win but with the added bonus of extra games should the dutch qualify for the knockout phase.

Robben looks on very good form and playing in an attacking role looks a very solid bet at 2.05 to get his name on the scoresheet once during the tournament.

Bet Rules

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Including Extra Time. Excluding Penalty Shootouts. The player must take part in the tournament for bets to stand.