ATP - Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal
If there is a player who can actually beat Nadal in this tournament, that player is Djokovic and not Federer. The difference is that Djokovic believes he can do it and if he goes up in a match, he doesn't look back. Federer can do it, but simply starts doubting it, as in the recent matches against Nadal, where he allowed the Spanish player to comeback to sets where he was trailing by 0-4 and 1-5. Djokovic would never allow that. Another difference is the backhand. Nadal puts Federer's backhand in a tremendous pressure and Fed's backhand simply falls apart. Djokovic's backhand doesn't. The Serbian didn't play a great match against Gulbis, but he was saving energies for this match, the same thing he did against Montanes in Hamburg, before facing Nadal and just losing by 7-5 2-6 6-2. The Serbian is a fighter and he believes he can actually beat Nadal, unlike Verdasco and Almagro, who decided to just bow down to their team mate and king of clay.
Rafael Nadal had such an easy way to the semi finals that face a real competitor on clay will be tough for him, at least at the first sets of the match. Nadal is the better claycourter of the world right now and maybe ever, but he isn't untouchable and Djokovic has more than enough tennis to get one set or maybe even two today. The Spanish player had to play his best to beat Djokovic in Hamburg and he will struggle against the Serbian, who is a good server and who can read Nadal's serve very well, as he has shown several times this season.
Obviously Nadal is the favorite to win this, but Djokovic has improved a lot since last season, when he lost by 7-5 6-4 6-2 in the semi finals of RG against the Spanish player. Djokovic is a natural talent and he believes on himself and Nadal will simply come under prepared for this match, as he didn't have to do nothing special to reach the semi finals. A win for Djokovic today would put him in front of Nadal in the ranking, so that's another motivation for Djokovic to give everything to win. The Serbian is arrogant enough to think he is better than Nadal on clay and that will give enough motivation and confidence to see him winning at least one set today. And if he does that, he will surely cover the handicap too. Take Djokovic plus the games in here.
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