Euro 2008 - Romania v France

This is my first pick of Euro2008.

Football is a tricky sport, because a lot of things depends on luck. A team could completely rule the situation on field, but lose 0-1. Of course you know that ;) So, that`s why I usually bet for under or over. And this pick is a definitely UNDER. As champ wrote in other preview of this match, that France is a clear winner, I would disagree. Yeah, they are favourites, but odds for them are too low to bet on France. So, reasons for my pick:

1. France has a wonderful defense, maybe the best in this championship (I am not talking about players personally, but as a unit). In their last 3 friendlies they didn`t concede a goal.

2.Something is wrong with their offense, in their last 3 friendlies they scored 3 goals although they didn`t play against world class teams (like Paraguay 0-0 and Colombia 1-0), and the goal against Colombia was scored from a penalty kick. Henry is out of his form, and they are missing their striker Trezeguet, so that is what`s wrong.

3.Romania has a good defense as well and a decent offense, but to score against France, you need a very good offense or some luck.

What if..?

Suppose France takes the lead (it should be in late first half), then in second half Romania tries to attack more, France defends. And either Romania scores with like 20 minutes left, or France makes a good counter attack and takes the lead 2-0. In the first occasion the game should stop (metaforrically speaking) both teams know that they are in a death group with Italy and Netherlands. So they will not try to risk and take 3 points, because in case of a mistake and loss they would have to win both games, what is not very possible. On the other hand, if France takes the lead 2-0 Romania will attack like a bull, without a real defense, and that would be really bad for me, because then game would be without control.

Suppose Romania takes the lead... Then they would defend strongly, trying to send long balls to Mutu. If France scores an equaliser, the it is the same scenario as I wrote before (none wants to risk), and if Romania scores 2-0... Well, that is not gonna happen.

So if you are still reading this article, (which I doubt, because it`s quite long) in conclusion I would say taht the score should be 1-1 or 1-0 to France.. France plays really defencive game, and won`t allow to concede 2 goals. And their offense isn't that good as it was with Zidane to score two goals against Romania... Good luck ;) I`ll write more previews later.

Pick : under 2.5
Odds : 1.60
Stake : 9 / 10
Bookmaker : Expekt
Match Result : 0-0
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