Eircom League - Derry City v UCD

UCD is one of the three teams that has only one win so far in this season. But, in contrast with Cobh and Galway, they have five draws, along with Derry most in league. They are slow on scoring goals, having scored 0,64 average per match, but their defense is extremely good, only Derry and Drogheda managed to score more then once. But, it was in the beginning of the season when thing weren't settled yet. Since 1:3 defeat vs Drogheda, UCD had five clear unders, totally nine in eleven rounds.

Derry has same number of unders in same number of rounds. Plus three games in Setanta Cup of which two were under 2,5. Derry posses more quality then UCD, but they usually don't win high. They have best defense in the league, but one of the weakest attacks of all top teams, averaging exactly 1 goal per match. At home they have conceded only once (2nd round vs Harps) and they plan not to concede today either.

UCD has no injury worries, while Derry's Sammy Morrow and Eugene Ferry are still out, while Sean Hargan is also uncertain to start. But, they are all unimportant, only important missing for Derry will be their "motor" in mid-field - McCourt.

Conclusion: We have two teams with most number of unders in whole league (81,8%). If they continue that way realistic odds would be 1.25, but bookies would never go with that odds. However, here i wouldn't go over 1.50, Derry as a favorite will miss main creator of play, while UCD will come to defend as they did in their games versus Bohs and Pats. I see boring match with one or two goals.

Predicted score: 1:0

Pick : under 2,5
Odds : 1.61
Stake : 8 / 10
Bookmaker : 5dimes
Match Result : 4-1
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