ATP - James Blake v Rafael Nadal

My two previous maximumstaking bets I have wroten here have gone wrong, hoping the same trend won't continue today.

This is a match what definately divides opinions and mine is to step on Blake�s side. Concentrating what players have done lately. Nadal made his return to the tournament after AO at Rotterdam. Since then his game was fullfilled with errors since he managed to reduce them at IW. Either serving wasn�t the at it�s best. Close matches against Tsonga and Blake which after a loss for Djokovic. At Miami he has shown great tennis. No more easy errors and serving going well. Yesterday against Mathieu he won in the second set all his 18 serves. Against Kiefer his comment�s were confident while asking what did he felt about rain stopping the game: �I was playing unbelievable in the beginning, you know, playing very well, hitting very well the ball, and playing almost perfect match�. Still Becker or Kiefer hasn�t represented yet a threat for him. Mathieu did but being 0-7 losing in head-to-head against Nadal with his mentality he probably was lost the match in his mind before playing a single point. Even good games from Nadal he haven�t faced a real test yet.

From Blake�s side, he hasn�t showed anything too great but neither anything too weak. At Miami winning Seppi, troubles against Santoro, alltough there isn�t many players on the tour Santoro can�t trouble. His latest match was against Stepanek was a success. His backhand worked fine as he said in the interview: �Definitely know where I'm making my money is on the forehand side. But the backhand felt great, especially on the returns�.

Blake leads their meetings 3-1 but only one recent meeting at IW which Nadal won 7-5, 3-6, 6-3. Both players played a nice match but in the end it wasn�t the best day for Blake, he almost gave the match away. In the third set 4-3* Blake serving Nadal had a breakpoint. Nadal returned the ball to the line, Blake stopped playing and decided to challence the call. The ball was clearly in. It wasn�t mentally the best day for Blake and Nadal used that for his advantage.

What�s different this time, expect Nadal seems to be gaining his topgame? Even IW and Miami are both slower hardcourts the difference between the courts is big. IW is almost perfect for Nadal�s game while Miami gives more chances for players with power. For example last year Nadal seemed to be in his topform at IW and at Miami. At IW final he won Djokovic 6-2, 7-5 but when they met again at Miami the result was 6-3, 6-4 for Djokovic. Maby just a form of the day but I�d say the circumstances. At IW openingodds for the match were 1.67-2.40 for Nadal�s advantage. The odds came around to 1.85-2.05 level. Considering those openingodds last time it makes no sense for me Nadal is now even bigger favourite.

Their gamestyles are giving the keys to the match for Blake. He�s going to dictate the game like he did at IW and it�s much about if he can keep his shots inside the lines. Nadal can�t run faster than the ball flys. When Nadal is considered as a player who doesn�t get tired it might give an advantage for him in the heat the longer the match goes. There�s also a chance for rain today what�d slower the circumstances. If so it should favour Nadal even he said he wasn�t comfortable when last time the rain stopped his match against Kiefer making the balls heavier. Nadal goes just slightly a favourite for me if the rain is going to effect to the circumstances but otherway I can understand why Nadal is the favourite but I can�t fully agree with that.

Pick : James Blake
Odds : 2.53
Stake : 10 / 10
Bookmaker : Expekt
Match Result : Nadal 2-1
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