Euro 2008 Qualifiers - England v Croatia

21 November 2007

Preview By Tipster CYellow (England)

England vs Croatia

I have read and listened to some total bollocks about this game both on the net and thru the English media. Conspiracy theories all over the place but the simple fact remains that international football is not predictable.

Living in England you would think that the big International teams win every game and England have some god given right to do so too. The fact remains that no side waltzes thru qualifing groups year after year without at least a little blip or a scare.

Not everyone in England even wants the team to win as it would see the demise of a miserable, uninspiring manager who should never have been given the job in the first place. I find myself torn between wanting to see my national team fail to win another tournament depsite being told by various media that this year is the best chance ever since the 1966 world cup and wanting to see them fail to qualify so we can install a quality manager in time for the 2010 world cup.

The England team has been leaked into the English press to handicap the side further since the manager wanted to keep it secret and it is rumoured to be this:

GK : Carson

RB : Richards

CB : Campbell

CB : Lescott

LB : Bridge

RM : Wright-Phillips

CM : Lampard

CM : Barry

CM : Gerrard

LM : J. Cole

CF : Crouch

I would like to think its a cunning plan and this is not the team but it probably is. Smacks of desperation to me. A must win game and England are playing 4-5-1? Whats that about? If McLaren wanted to make a ballsy decision drop Lampard or Gerrard, the two have not played well together for years if ever and yet here they are paired together again.

So we can expect another incoherent performance in a must win game where England nervously struggle to create any chances as Crouch gets isolated up front and fails to hold up the ball roperly and brings others into play.

What can we expect from Croatia? On the one side they have the chance to knock out a big rival from Euro 2008 and that would obviously enhance their own chances of winning the tournament next year. On the other side there is still a chance that Croatia could end up as one of the Group A seeds. Normally this would be a good thing but the other Group A teams are hosts Austria and Switzerland and holders Greece. Just 4 teams in each pot, who wants to be in a pot with those 3 teams rather than in a different pot with a chance to be in a group with one of that trio of (with respect) underperforming international sides?

Croatia will not be playing eyeballs out for a win but National pride is not going to see them fall over and let England waltz to an easy win and top the group now is it? Just ask Russia.

The last joker in the pack is the pitch. All the money spent on Wembley and they seem to have imported a pitch from some sunday league team field. It tore to shreds during the NFL game, its rained heaps in the last week and its reported to be in poor condition again and not condusive to the slick passing football England are trying to play (as opposed to the spray 50 yard passes from the back under Eriksson).

Englands form under Steve Mclaren had been pretty good recently but the team selected does not fill me with confidence and without Rooney and Owen looks short on goals. England are far too short for me in the match betting odds. Those odds would just about be justified if Rooney, Owen, Terry and Ferdinand were playing but none of them are. For me the one value bet here is the game to be goalless, a result which would make both sides happy.

There are 2 ways to appraoch this, take the 8.0 (Paddypower) on no goalscorer with the added bonus that if the only goal(s) are own goals you still win or take Betsafes 10.0 on a 0-0 scoreline. My preference is for a small bet on the latter.