Barcelona vs Bayern
With that bold, if passionate, statement out of the way let's take a look at the value on offer in the Barcelona v Bayern 2nd leg match this Wednesday.
Yes, Bayern made Barcelona look very average in Germany and frankly took them apart but the Catalan side are a different beast when playing at Camp Nou. In both of the previous knockout rounds Barca have taken what would be considered poor 1st leg results and turned them into winning positions at home - I expect them to have a serious shot at doing the same in this semi-final [although it is very tough to see them beating the Germans by the required 4/5 goals].
What we must expect from Barca at home is a quick, passing game and generally a display of attacking football of the highest order. The little hero Lionel Messi came off the bench against Bilbao to provoke a Barca fightback (scoring one and setting up another) and I think he will play an integral part in this Barca fightback too.
Messi must start the game. To leave him on the bench and hope for an important cameo would be suicide. It would be better to gamble and start him than to lose without him. With this in mind I can see Barca starting strongly - whether Bayern can keep them out or not is the interesting point, I think they will struggle to do so. After scouring the markets the best value in this match (for me) is in BARCA TO SCORE OVER 1.5 GOALS IN THE 1ST HALF at 4.5 with Coral (6pts). If they do so Messi will surely be a big factor and I think it is worth a minimum stake (1pt) on the Argentine genius to score a hat-trick at odds of 19.0 with StanJames [it is very rare to see a Messi hat-trick above 12.0].
Whilst Bayern are likely to still progress to the final it will surely not be without a fight. Both teams are likely to score but there is little value in the market without a maximum stake so take a little risk and hope for the little wizard to come up trumps.
BARCA OVER 1.5 1ST HALF GOALS 6pts @ 4.5 with Coral
LIONEL MESSI HAT-TRICK 1pt @ 19.0 with StanJames
|Barca over 1.5 1st Half goals||Coral||4.50||6||0-3 LOST (-6 units)|