Steelers vs Miami Dolphins
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5 overall and 6-2 at home) will host Miami Dolphins (10-5 overall and 4-4 on the road). IMO plenty reasons here to go with home side to cover this big number (-10.5). Yes, it is opposite from what I've said in Seahawks vs Lions analysis about taking such big spreads in playoffs games. But here seems it is quite different situation. First, fact these two teams have had more or less similar regular season record does not give real picture cause from my point of view, schedule of Miami Dolphins was much easier. The Dolphins outplayed the Steelers in only mutual game of the season, 30-15 in game played in Miami but it was long ago. Looking at that game and now, much changed. Back then Pittsburgh have had big injury problems and thus were losing games in a row. Defeat in Miami was just one of the four straight defeats. But after that and since they become healthier, the Steelers closed the regular season with seven consecutive victories. Dolphins on the other side are in much bigger injury concerns than they were back then.
Of course, big advantage for the Steelers is in face of Ben Roethlisberger. This Quarterback is
11-6 in playoffs starts (two times Super Bowl champion). On the other side Dolphins will rely on Matt Moore for whom this is the first playoff start ever. For end, a huge factor could be weather. Deep below 0 Celsius is expected. This is something that definitely favor the home team especially when on the other side is someone like Miami who much often play in completely different conditions.
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|Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5||Pinnacle||1.88||8||30-12 WON (+7.04 units)|